California Golden Bears

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At Saturday, 2:30 PT on ESPN2, Cal will finally return to the NCAA tournament when they take on the 9 seed Mississippi State Bulldogs in the Galen Center in Los Angeles. While it’s tempting to think about certain possible match-ups further down the line in the tournament (and while certain teams complain about how cruel and unfair life is for the elite), it’s time to focus on the task at hand. Let’s learn about Cal’s next opponent!

Previewing Mississippi State

Record: 21-11 (7-9 in SEC play)

Major resume wins: 4 point win over Utah on a neutral court, 4 point win over Oklahoma at home, 8 point double OT win over Vanderbilt on the road

Program history: You might remember Mississippi State from one of the most iconic tournament moments in WBB history. When Morgan William hit a buzzer beater to beat 36-0 UConn in the 2017 Final Four it was thrilling as a sporting moment but it also opened up the world of women’s basketball. Somebody other than UConn or some other giant could win! Mississippi State didn’t have much WBB history before Vic Schaefer built a core that would go sweet 16 - runners up - runners up - elite 8 in a four year span, and he parlayed that success into a job at Texas in 2020.

Head Coach: Sam Purcell was hired in 2022 after many years as an assistant at Louisville under Jeff Walz, and he’s been solid-but-unspectacular across three seasons in Starkville. In his first season, Purcell earned MSU an 11 seed in the play-in round, then beat Illinois and 6 seed Creighton before falling in a close game to 3 seed Notre Dame. MSU just missed the tournament last year before earning a 9 seed this year.

Players to know: MSU, like Cal, is a pretty balanced team - their seven main rotation players all average at least 6 points/game. But I think two players stand out.

First is Jerkaila Jordan, a ball dominant 5’10’’ shooting guard who spent one year at Tulane before transferring. Jordan does a little bit of everything, averaging 16 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 steals/game. At her best, she can take over a game by constantly getting downhill and to the basket. At her worst she can take and miss a bunch of shots. Cal’s ability to make her inefficient on offense will be a key.

Next up is Madina Okot, a 6’6’’ transfer from . . . Zetech University in Kenya! She’s an elite rebounder and imposing physical presence, though she’s not the quickest player and doesn’t draw as many fouls as you’d expect of a player with her physical abilities. Her match-up with Michelle Onyiah may well define the game, though MSU isn’t quite as dependent on Okot as Cal is on Onyiah.

Stat profile:

(stats via Torvik)

Three things I like to see:

1. A team that is mediocre at forcing turnovers . . . though MSU is juuuust good enough at it to make me nervous

2. An offense that doesn’t draw a ton of fouls. Keep Michelle on the court!

3. A defense that allows teams to take and make a lot of threes, on which more below.

But more generally, MSU is just a balanced team. Good offense, good defense, no real major weaknesses, and a solid strength on the offensive glass when they miss a shot.

Scouting: Here’s a long highlight of MSU’s last game, an SEC tournament loss to Ole Miss:

Observations:

• MSU is FAST. Pretty much every ball handler can move quickly and they often attack in transition if they feel they have daylight. Considering that threat and MSU’s rebounding ability, I don’t think there’s a ton of value in attacking the offensive glass for Cal.

• A ton of high pick and roll involving Okot and whichever guard is handling the ball, and a ton of players trying to break down defenders off the dribble in isolation. Ole Miss mostly countered by switching every screen. Can Cal do the same? That puts a lot of defensive pressure on Michelle Onyiah, unless they put somebody else on Okot (Suarez?) when MSU runs high screens.

• However, despite all the downhill action, MSU isn’t really looking for contact or to draw fouls as much as they’re looking to create open looks, even if that means settling for a foul line jumper. That matches the numbers - MSU has attempted 522 “Far Twos” to Cal’s 320.

• It’s almost entirely player-to-player defense from MSU, with a couple of zone possessions that don’t look good at all. I’d be surprised if MSU considers zoning Cal considering Cal’s shooting.

• Okot strikes me as a little vulnerable on defense - she’s tall and rangy but a touch slow can be very vulnerable to a quick first step.

Keys to the Game:

1. “It’s what we do”

Mississippi State allows teams to take a lot of 3s, and they’re not particularly good at defending them. They let Kentucky to 18-33 in a blowout loss. They let Tennessee go 12-26 in a loss that wasn’t close. They let Alabama go 9-17 in a blowout loss.

If Cal takes and makes their 3s at the rate we know they are capable of, it could very easily be the difference in this game.

1. Keep Michelle on the court

Granted this could basically always be a key to the game. But it’s particular so when the other team has a significant post presence. If Onyiah has to sit for long stretches (particularly whenever Okot is on the floor) Cal runs the risk of struggling on the glass on both ends and would probably need to double team any post touches.

1. Point of attack defense

Whether MSU is bringing Medina out to set a screen and run a pick and roll or whether they’re just letting their guards attack in isolation, the vast bulk of their offense is a dribble drive looking for an interior shot and then an offensive rebound. Cal’s ability to deal with screens and stay in front of a bunch of quick and athletic guards will define the game on defense.

Our Computer Overlords Predict: Torvik sez Cal 71, Mississippi State 70. I will say that I am slightly more optimistic than a coin flip because I do think that this is a solid stylistic match-up for Cal. Drawing a team that isn’t great at forcing turnovers, doesn’t draw a ton of fouls, and doesn’t emphasize stopping threes is reasonably lucky. But MSU is absolutely good enough to win this game, even if you might think it shades 60-40 in Cal’s favor. It’s gonna be tough.